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Hurricane gurus predict busy 2013 storm season
Good chance of at least one major storm making landfall
By Pat Andrews
posted Apr 12, 2013 - 2:15:21pm
The guys at Colorado State University are at it again, making predictions for the 2013 hurricane season that starts June 1.
Every April, university meteorologists Philip Klotzbach and William Gray gaze into their crystal balls, or their computer screens, anyway, and report their findings.
What do they prophesy for this summer? "Enhanced activity" due to a bit of extra warming in the tropical Atlantic.
"We anticipate an above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean," Klotzbach and Gray said.
It only takes one landfall to make it a really busy season for residents along the affected coastline, they warned, urging residents to be prepared.
Klotzbach and Gray are predicting for 2013:
• 18 named storms. The median is 12.
• 95 named-storm days. The median is 60.1.
• Nine hurricanes. The median is 6.5.
• Four major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5), with a 72-percent chance that at least one of them will make landfall on the U.S. coastline. That's up from 52 percent for the past century. Chances are 48 percent, the meteorologists said, that one of the major storms will hit the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula. The average chance has been 30 percent.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30.
This year's storm names are Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dorian, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van and Wendy.
A cyclonic, counter-clockwise rotating storm formed over warm waters in the Atlantic basin gets a name when it reaches tropical-storm force, with winds of 40 mph. When a storm achieves winds of 74 mph, it becomes a Category 1 hurricane.
If the winds increase to 111 mph, the storm becomes a Category 3 or "major" storm, capable of producing devastating damage. Category 4 hurricanes have winds of 131-155 mph, and Category 5 storms have winds of greater than 155 mph.
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