June 1 marked the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting above-normal hurricane activity, with a forecast of 17 to 25 named storms. The season ends November 30.
Dr. Wendy Anderson, professor and chair of Stetson University’s Department of Environmental Science and Studies, provided The Beacon with some insight regarding why this year’s forecast may include an increased risk of flooding for those in a hurricane’s path.
In 2022, Hurricane Ian dumped between 11 and 15 inches of rain across the county, leading to widespread flooding that lingered for more than a week. At one point, some 247,000 Volusia County households and businesses — roughly 80 percent of all utility customers in the county — were reported to be without power.
Anderson described how hurricanes are rated for wind speed and the potential for wind damage, but categorization does not directly refer to the amount of associated rainfall. Warming ocean waters lead to “more embodied energy” and an associated “evaporation rate,” Anderson described.
What this implies is that hurricanes of all categories hold much more water in them than storms used to, which then leads to increased flood risk. This, combined with the occurrence of slower-moving storms, can be a recipe for disaster.
Anderson referred to the devastating flooding that Houston experienced during Hurricane Harvey in 2017 and how this knowledge informs how we can prepare for future storms of this nature.
“Even though the last couple of storms we had tended to move across the state pretty quickly … the first time we really paid attention to [a slower-moving storm] was Hurricane Harvey … where the storm kind of gets to its offshore position, and just sits, churns and dumps water,” Anderson reflected. “When you have a slow-moving storm — which we’re seeing more and more of, that’s where you increase the flood risk as well.”
Anderson cautioned that properties that flooded during Hurricane Ian in 2022 should be prepared to experience flooding with “every future storm.”
“If you flooded in Ian, you need to be prepared for flooding. That’s sandbags, that’s moving your valuables to a higher level, that’s planning to evacuate if you know your house or your street floods,” Anderson said.
“We are going to have lots of extraordinary storms going forward,” Anderson predicts. “Extraordinary is going to become ordinary.”
According to previous Beacon hurricane season coverage, DeLand City Manager Michael Pleus summarized how the city prepares for the annual, heightened risk of storms and the potential associated damage.
“We usually start in May and do a self-assessment, and we go over any items we were working on over the last of the year, and any footnotes from last season that we need to change and deal with,” Pleus said. “We talk about making sure that we have anything from sandbags to arrangements for fuel and water. It’s just kind of a big checklist you have to go through.”
Visit https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season for up-to-date hurricane activity tracking information. For additional resources regarding hurricane preparedness and updates, visit:
- Volusia County Public Information Network: www.volusia.org/PIN
- https://www.ready.gov/hurricanes
- www.ready.gov/build-a-kit
